Économie et statistiques N° 82/2015 Étude comparative des analyses ex post des projections démographiques luxembourgeoises, belges, françaises, britanniques et néerlandaises du vingtième siècle

This publication is a comparison of the results of ex-post on population projections analyses published between 1930 and 2000 in Luxembourg, Belgium, France, Netherlands and the United Kingdom. First, the figures for the total population observed in reality are compared with the projected population in the different forecasts. The exercise is repeated with its components: the crude birth rates, mortality rates and net migration rates. Secondly, we apply the Bulatao calculation method to allocate the difference between the figures of the survey population and the projected population in spreads on crude birth rates, mortality and net migration rates. Finally, results for projections are compared in order to identify some correlations between changes in the total error of the forecast in the different countries.